Who are the key players in the Copenhagen discussions?
Norway: A big player taking a strong stance. Norway has promised to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to between 30 and 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, thereby setting the most ambitious mitigation target among developed nations.
The United States: Although the US wants to see the Kyoto Protocol scrapped completely, the Obama Administration has shown that it takes climate change seriously: Its climate bill would see the nation’s emissions cut to 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. If the bill becomes law by December, it would put the US in a position of leadership at the negotiating table. However, that’s not likely to happen and President Obama has still not confirmed that he’ll even attend the Copenhagen Summit.
China: The world’s biggest polluter and a leader among countries is advocating that the Kyoto Protocol be extended, thereby keeping climate change a problem for developed countries to fix. There is a chance that the rift this point of view causes with the US could be healed by bi-lateral talks between President Hu-Jintao and Obama. The two leaders will meet in Beijing between November 15th and 18th.
The European Union: The EU leadership says its up to industrialized countries to fund developing ones to deal with the effects of climate change and help out with cutting emissions. But it also says developing countries can’t expect any help, unless they commit to cuts. Some development groups say this amounts to holding poor countries for ransom.
Canada: Our nation is walking into Copenhagen with a bad rep. In 2008, the government’s climate policy demanded emissions cuts that would bring us to 2 percent below 1990 levels, while European climate policy calls for a reduction of between 25 and 40 percent below 1990 levels. Prime Minister Harper says he’ll follow the lead of the US on climate change, and Environment Minister Jim Prentice is already saying it’s unrealistic to expect an agreement to be reached in Copenhagen.
Norway: A big player taking a strong stance. Norway has promised to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to between 30 and 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, thereby setting the most ambitious mitigation target among developed nations.
The United States: Although the US wants to see the Kyoto Protocol scrapped completely, the Obama Administration has shown that it takes climate change seriously: Its climate bill would see the nation’s emissions cut to 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. If the bill becomes law by December, it would put the US in a position of leadership at the negotiating table. However, that’s not likely to happen and President Obama has still not confirmed that he’ll even attend the Copenhagen Summit.
China: The world’s biggest polluter and a leader among countries is advocating that the Kyoto Protocol be extended, thereby keeping climate change a problem for developed countries to fix. There is a chance that the rift this point of view causes with the US could be healed by bi-lateral talks between President Hu-Jintao and Obama. The two leaders will meet in Beijing between November 15th and 18th.
The European Union: The EU leadership says its up to industrialized countries to fund developing ones to deal with the effects of climate change and help out with cutting emissions. But it also says developing countries can’t expect any help, unless they commit to cuts. Some development groups say this amounts to holding poor countries for ransom.
Canada: Our nation is walking into Copenhagen with a bad rep. In 2008, the government’s climate policy demanded emissions cuts that would bring us to 2 percent below 1990 levels, while European climate policy calls for a reduction of between 25 and 40 percent below 1990 levels. Prime Minister Harper says he’ll follow the lead of the US on climate change, and Environment Minister Jim Prentice is already saying it’s unrealistic to expect an agreement to be reached in Copenhagen.
What happens if Copenhagen fails?
The Prime Minister of Thailand says there will be no plan B coming out of Copenhagen, only Plan F—for failure. However, negotiators left the Barcelona talks in a cloud of pessimism. The most optimistic predictions look to a strong politically binding deal (instead of a legally-binding one) coming out of the Copenhagen Summit. They say a legally binding deal is more likely to come out of the climate change summit in Mexico, in 2010. If the Obama administration does not manage to get its climate bill passed in the next year, its unlikely that a legally-binding international climate change agreement will be signed in 2010 either. In that case, it will be up to individual countries to forge bi-lateral agreements—and set their own targets. To read the most recently published Copenhagen Draft Agreement (published in September) click here
The Prime Minister of Thailand says there will be no plan B coming out of Copenhagen, only Plan F—for failure. However, negotiators left the Barcelona talks in a cloud of pessimism. The most optimistic predictions look to a strong politically binding deal (instead of a legally-binding one) coming out of the Copenhagen Summit. They say a legally binding deal is more likely to come out of the climate change summit in Mexico, in 2010. If the Obama administration does not manage to get its climate bill passed in the next year, its unlikely that a legally-binding international climate change agreement will be signed in 2010 either. In that case, it will be up to individual countries to forge bi-lateral agreements—and set their own targets. To read the most recently published Copenhagen Draft Agreement (published in September) click here
Not convinced? Here are what the scientists and future-makers of our time are saying:
Humans are bargaining with each other, but ignoring the planet. What humans can do to reduce emissions is one thing, but if planetary boundaries are breached we are all imperiled. —James Lovelock, Inventor of the Gaia theory
Humans are bargaining with each other, but ignoring the planet. What humans can do to reduce emissions is one thing, but if planetary boundaries are breached we are all imperiled. —James Lovelock, Inventor of the Gaia theory
